POLITICS: IOWA RECAP

Saturday, January 5, 2008

The results are in… In the first step of America’s presidential selection process in 2008, two candidates have turned their unlikely stories into meaningful victories: Barack Obama, the Democratic winner, and Mike Huckabee, the Republican.

Obama has been a favorite of the media for months, but his victory over Hillary Clinton seems partly to be a result of a massive increase in turn-out in Iowa (nearly double that of 2004), especially by young voters. Four in ten first-time voters (among the Democrats) apparently favored him. Obama claimed 37.6% of the vote, to Clinton’s 29.5%. She even trailed John Edwards, who drew 29.8% support. Obama also did well by scooping a large chunk of independents, and a small number of Republicans who came to the Democratic caucus to vote for him. He even beat her among women. Clinton will say that she nearly tied him among real Democrats, but Obama’s campaign will sensibly retort that Iowa proved the crossover appeal needed to win a general election. Change was the theme of the night, and Iowans who want it strongly preferred Obama.

Clinton’s third-place finish is deeply disappointing for her, even though she retains lots of money, strong organization and a well-recognized name and can expect to improve her performance. She has quickly turned to New Hampshire, where polls have shown her tying with (or leading) Obama, and then on to South Carolina. Edwards’s future looks cloudier, given the gap with Obama. The Democrats appear to be heading for a two-horse race, which either can win.

For the Republicans, Iowa featured a winner and loser in the state, and a winner who did not even bother to campaign there seriously, nor to show up on caucus night. Mike Huckabee’s improbable rise was confirmed with a nine-percentage-point win over Mitt Romney: Huckabee got just over 34% of the vote, Romney’s 25%, with Fred Thompson and John McCain each taking just over 13%. Rudy Giuliani, who has not bothered to campaign in Iowa, scored just 3.5% support.

Romney will be particularly disappointed. He had poured money, including much of his own, into the state. But Huckabee, the former Baptist preacher, appealed to evangelical Republicans, who turned against Romney’s Mormon religion and his perceived recent conversion to social conservatism. Romney called this just the first round, and promised to bounce back.

The winner who stayed away from Iowa was McCain. He came in fourth, but just a few hundred votes behind Thompson, a former senator, despite barely visiting the state. Recent newspaper endorsements and media coverage have revived the Arizona senator’s fortunes. He now looks like he can move past Romney in New Hampshire and perhaps win the state, which borders Romney’s Massachusetts.

Not everyone was a winner, though. Two Democratic senators from the Northeast — Christopher Dodd of Connecticut and Joseph Biden Jr. of Delaware — became the first casualties of the Iowa caucuses. After both failed to get a single percentage point, they issued statements saying they would drop out of the race. The candidacy of Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico seemed imperiled as well; he came in fourth with only 2 percent of the delegate count.

The most exciting race in decades would not be complete without its unexpected twists, and New Hampshire offers one on Tuesday. The state’s independents may vote in either primary. Both Obama and McCain court them ambitiously. But they may only vote once; if they break for Obama’s hope and optimism, they abandon McCain to Romney. And if they break for McCain’s maverick streak, they may help the Democratic machine’s candidate, Clinton.